By Sanja de Silva Jayatilleka
The Valdai Discussion Club, established in 2004, held its 20th meeting in Sochi, Russia from October 2 to 5, seeing over 140 “leading experts” from 42 countries attending the conference despite ongoing hostilities between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin attended the conference for the plenary session on the last day, to be interviewed and to answer the delegates’ questions for over 3 hours.
The theme of the conference was “Fair Multipolarity: How to ensure Security and Development for Everyone”, laying the conceptual foundations for a more equitable global order.
Multipolarity in a “Hierarchy-Free Future”
Multipolarity being the theme of the conference, it was analyzed in all its aspects. The moderator of the panel on the subject, Professor Emeritus of Politics from the University of Kent Richard Sakwa proposed the term “Heterarchy” to describe the new order of multipolarity, suggesting that no country will be hegemonic within that order. This new order would pursue a “positive peace” and be driven by a “developmental agenda.”
The new Valdai expert’s Report on multipolarity (“Maturity Certificate”) asserts, in accordance with Russia’s 2023 Foreign Policy Concept, that while multipolarity continues to take shape, it has “definitely become irreversible.”
It sees the emerging new order as an “Asynchronous Multipolarity”, where international relations are evolving in different segments at different speeds and times, undermining the stable structure required by a hierarchical system.
It acknowledges that the International Order is governed by the distribution of power, recognizing however that there is more than just military power that determines it. The report declares that there are other powers that can be “weaponized”, reflecting the complexity of international relations, where for one, the US dollar overwhelmingly dominates the global financial system.
A response of the major powers of the global South is the present tendency towards de-dollarization pursuant to the unilateral sanctions regime imposed on Russia. While the US $ continues to dominate and will do so for the foreseeable future, those countries especially of the BRICS wished not to limit their options in global trade and to pursue their economic and foreign policy guided by their own national interest and developmental compulsions.
It indicates that the digital sphere as another area of competition where the West dominates, although China, earlier than Russia, had found it necessary to develop their own digital platforms to mitigate their vulnerability to strategic shocks, as has Russia which also developed its own digital platforms. It hopes that China and Russia could become exporters of “digital sovereignty” in the future.
BRICS
“BRICS has arrived!” declared Dr Matab, part of the Indian delegation. The intention of the BRICS Plus group is not to replace one version of domination by another, he said, adding that instead, it sees it as evolving into a truly representative global economic system of governance.
“BRICS is a vision not an organization,” he said, one which takes responsibility for shaping a new world order. Another Indian perspective was that BRICS plus emerged to rebalance the world order, and recommended going beyond State level engagement to connectivity of youth, think-tanks, and BRICS games. Indian currency is being used in 22 countries at present, he said, while China’s is used in 120.
Brazil’s Dr Nogueira, formerly Vice President of the BRICS’ New Development Bank said that progress is slow due to the resistance of Central Banks. Not all members of the BRICS are in a rush to create a BRICS currency, with some such as India preferring to take time to make a final decision. The new currency was not intended to replace local currencies, and the USD would remain the dominant reserve currency.
Russia will take over the presidency of the BRICS bank in two years, when Brazil’s ex-President Dilma Rousseff completes her two years as President of the Bank. Russia will also host the BRICS Plus summit in 2024, where 200 events have already been planned, including BRICS games.
The Chinese vision for BRICS was not to topple nor overhaul but only to restructure the current global financial and economic architecture; to gradually modify the global system to represent the more than 50% of the world’s population.
The South African delegate, Dr Maharajah asserted that one cannot solve the world’s problem with a homogenous group such as the G7. The BRICS Plus shows the embrace of complexity in international relations but there was a need for the increase of regional voices to understand regional dynamics within which the world’s problems take place. This would make for a more stable international system, he said, noting South Africa’s example of inviting the African Union states to its BRICS conference this year.
Valdai goes nuclear
A somewhat controversial moment at the conference occurred when Russia’s preeminent strategic studies intellectual, Emeritus Professor Sergei Karaganov who has been described as the Russia’s Kissinger (and is a real-life friend of Henry Kissinger) reiterated his recent writings, widely criticized in academic and policy circles in the country, recommending a change to Russia’s nuclear policy to lower its threshold of the use of nuclear weapons to include the first use of tactical nuclear weapons.
He thought that the deterrent capacity of nuclear weapons was no longer effective, evidenced by the West’s enthusiastic military support to Ukraine against a fellow nuclear power, Russia. He said that the efficiency of deterrence needs to be enhanced by using tactical nukes against a third non-nuclear country openly supplying Ukraine with weapons, in order to stop the escalation of the conflict towards the Third World War by the irresponsible behavior of the Western coalition.
Sri Lanka’s Dr Dayan Jayatilleka promptly stood up to intervene saying that as a country which had contributed so much to humanity, more than most countries, Russia should not let it be said that it initiated its very destruction. He warned that any use of tactical nukes would invite a western response and could lead to an escalation, with retaliatory tac-nuke strikes carried out against Crimea or the Donbas.
He also exhorted that what the on-going situation needed instead was to have new Marshals Zhukov, Timoshenko and Rokossovsky, heroes of the Red Army’s counteroffensive against the Nazis, while the very suggestion of tactical nuclear weapons would indicate Russian weakness, not strength.
The loud round of approving applause for his intervention from the mainly Russian audience indicated that Emeritus Prof Karaganov’s view on this was not widely popular and was regarded with as much consternation by his compatriots as by most of the foreign delegates.
The Chinese delegate said that a first strike went against China’s nuclear policy and would be viewed unfavorably by China, while interested in the outcome of such action by Russia. The Indian panelist, a former Ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva at the same time as Dr Dayan, firmly asserted that such a policy would not be supported by India which was very concerned at its suggestion.
When the same question was posed by Professor Karaganov to President Putin on the last day, and President Putin was unambiguous in his response that Russia does not need to change its nuclear policy, as they had stationed thousands of missiles and any strike on Russia would trigger a massive automatic retaliation that could reach anywhere in the world, no matter where it originated.
According to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s revelation at Valdai this time, the irresponsible actions of then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who reportedly flew to Kiev to advise president Zelensky not to negotiate the Minsk agreement, which had been virtually concluded for a peaceful settlement between the Russia and Ukraine, has resulted in a possible future confrontation, however unlikely, between powerful, nuclear armed former adversaries.
Sanja de Silva Jayatilleka is the author of “Mission Impossible – Geneva” (Vijitha Yapa, Colombo, 2017). She was a participant by invitation at the Valdai 20th annual conference.
Factum is an Asia-Pacific focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation, and Strategic Communications accessible via www.factum.lk.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the organization’s.