Strong economic fundamentals with stable government will create a great dynamism in the markets. The increase in per capita income at 9.6%, from USD 2538 in 2023 to USD 2784, will create immense demand in the economy and enhanced supply by the factories and opportunities for new employment
India is embarking on a phase of self-sustained expansion, driven by dynamic reforms that have set in motion a virtuous cycle of growth and development. In the post-COVID era, India’s resilience is increasing each day. India is consistently growing at more than 7 percent in the post-pandemic years. During the initial two quarters of FY 2023-24, India experienced real GDP growth rates of 7.8 percent (Q2), and 7.6 percent (Q3) respectively with an average of 7.7% in H1 2023-24. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has raised its growth projection for FY 2023-24 to 7 percent from the previously estimated 6.5 percent as economic fundamentals are becoming strong and strong and ease of doing business is improving in a significant way with ground touching reforms from Centre to State and State to districts, tehsil and village level.
The index of Purchasing Manufacturing (PMI) stayed consistently above 50 during most of the year reflecting strong industrial production and investment environment. During the period of April to November 2023–24, the cumulative index of eight core industries (ICI) has exhibited a growth rate of more than 12% percent in comparison to the same period of the previous year. These eight sectors are vital pillars of the Indian economy, and thus, any growth witnessed in these sectors provides insights into the production performance of the core industries. India’s medium-term growth prospects appear promising, as suggested by high frequency indicators such as gross GST collections and CPI inflation. During the initial eight months of fiscal year 2024, gross GST collections have experienced a year-on-year growth of 12 percent, while the average CPI inflation level (5.4 percent) has remained below the upper tolerance limit of 6% set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during the eight months April-November FY 2023-24
Economic Outlook for 2024
| S.No | Indicators | 2023 | 2024 |
| 1 | Gross Domestic Product (USD trillion) | 3.7 | 4.01 |
| 2 | Gross domestic product per capita, current prices(USD) | 2538 | 2784 |
| 3 | Total investments (% of GDP) | 31.7 | 31.8 |
| 4 | Inflation, average consumer prices | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| 5 | Volume of exports goods and services(growth) | (-)0.8 | 4.6 |
Source: Data compiled from IMF World Economic Outlook 2023.
The year 2024 is expected to be a year of fortunes for the Indian economy, paving the way for a period of growth and prosperity. India is estimated to become a USD 4 trillion economy in 2024 from USD 3.7 trillion in 2023. By capitalizing on the “Make in India” and the evolving global supply chains, investment in manufacturing will emerge as a pivotal factor in driving economic expansion. While economic performance of the major economies is diverging, India’s growth trajectory is anticipated to be stable and continue to reach new highs. The current estimation suggests that the Gross Domestic Product per capita income is set to increase from USD 2538 in 2023 to USD 2784 in 2024. This rise in per capita income at 9.6% reflects the positive trajectory of the Indian economy. An increase in per capita income leads to an improvement in consumers’ purchasing power, which in turn promotes a positive cycle of demand and supply with enhanced production possibility frontiers and new employment creation in the factories.
Amidst the uncertainties surrounding the global geopolitical scenario, the overall outlook for total investment appears stable. It is expected that there will be an increase in total investment, moving from 31.7 percent in 2023 to 31.8 percent in 2024. In terms of inflation, the estimates suggest a positive scenario, with a projected deceleration from 5.4 percent (average) in 2023 to 4.5 percent (average) in 2024, despite the rising volatility in global landscape. The Indian economy has shown remarkable resilience in terms of exports too. Volume of exports of goods and services is expected to surge to 4.6 percent in 2024 from (-) 0.8 percent in 2023. India’s financial market has witnessed remarkable growth, surpassing ₹70,000 (SENSEX), due to the government’s proactive approach in implementing favorable reforms in the country during the last many years and this momentum is expected to continue in the 2024 too.
In conclusion, India will remain a bright spot in the global economy and driving the global growth trajectory. India’s economic landscape in 2024 is marked by a robust and resilient recovery, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and setting the stage for sustained growth not only in the next few years but in the next many decades. The proactive implementation of reforms, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and exports, has propelled the nation to achieve significant milestones. India’s economy is projected to outpace other global economies, with the growth surpassing 7% continuously in the post pandemic years. The country’s GDP is on track to reach USD 4 trillion, positioning India as a major player in the world and third largest economy in the next few years, GDP surpassing USD 7 trillion by 2030.
India’s government’s strategic measures have improved business efficiency, attracted global investments, and created a conducive environment for both domestic and international enterprises. With a thriving market scenario, increasing consumer spending, and a focus on sustainability, India’s economic trajectory is significantly optimistic, with projections of continued growth outpacing other global economies in the world economic system. (Financial Post)