Indian economy is making longer strides than it ever made before. And the evidence of the glorious journey does not come from New Delhi but from the World Bank and India’s Asian rival China. Major global institutions have predicted economic growth of over 6 percent even as India enjoys the fast-rising foreign exchange. Indian economy is likely to remain resilient despite the global problems. [1]
The world is heading to global recession, the World Bank has warned.[2] However, India is going to have the fastest growth rate among the world’s largest economies. “In India, growth is expected to edge up to 6.4 percent in 2024-25,” it said.[3] India’s proposed growth rate is impressive as compared to the world average of 2.4 percent and China’s deceleration to 4.4 percent.[4]
Even before the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had made upward revisions and raised the growth outlook for 2024 to 6.3 percent.[5] “India has potential for even higher growth, with greater contributions from labour and human capital,” it said.[6] The strong domestic demand, expanding fixed investment, growing public infrastructure spending, and strong private-sector credit growth are major factors responsible for India’s growth story.
IMF Assistant Director Nada Choueiri called India a “star performer” thanks to its economic strides. “What we have been observing for quite some time now is that India has been growing at a very robust rate. It’s one of the fastest growing large emerging markets and it’s contributing, in our current projections, more than 16 percent of global growth this year,” she said.[7] There has been a positive reaction to India’s economic future growth from all quarters.
In what can be called the rarest of rare moments, China praised India’s economic march calling it a transformed, stronger, and more assertive country. In the state-run Global Times, Zhang Jiadong, who is director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, wrote: “India has achieved outstanding results in economic development and social governance, and its great power strategy has moved from dream to reality.”[8]
Jiadong’s comments are significant since his comments appeared in the China Communist Party (CCP) controlled news media, and those could not be published without the regime’s approval. “With its rapid economic and social development, India has become more strategically confident and more proactive in creating and developing a “Bharat narrative”,” he added.
International media is abuzz with the Indian growth story. They are citing infrastructure building, positive stock markets, investments in the green sector, and space exploration activities as they are showering praise on India.[9] John Kemp, market analyst with news agency Reuters, said “For structural reasons, India is likely to remain the world’s fastest-growing economy throughout much of the next 10-20 years.”[10]
So are the analysts and international experts. Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad said “The Indian economy is undeniably poised for greatness, with a number of reforms undertaken in past years finally paving the way for solid growth.”[11] Switzerland-based UBS group said India would benefit from digitalisation adoption, increased services exports and a manufacturing push as it paints an optimistic picture for this decade. “We expect India to maintain medium-term growth of 6.5 per cent annually from FY26 through FY30 when it sees the GDP touching USD 6 trillion,” UBS India chief economist Tanvee Gupta-Jain.[12]
India has set on to become the largest economy in Asia as the Chinese economy faces a slowdown, said JC de Swaan a lecturer in economics at Princeton University. “The baton of economic reform among the three largest Asian economies has passed on to India…India has an attractive runway with its young and growing population of 1.4 billion people, while China’s ageing population has started declining,” he said.[13] India is expected to become the third largest economy by 2028 as it touches the USD 5 billion mark. But what is more important is that the country is going to sustain high growth in the medium term. India’s share of the global growth is going to increase to 18 percent in the near future.[14] Top economists with the United Nations, Goldman Sachs believe India has begun its journey to become an economic superpower. (Financial Post)
