Quiet diplomacy is at work in Myanmar. The holding of the Fourth Annual Meeting of BIMSTEC Security Chiefs without much fanfare sends a strong signal that the instability in Myanmar concerns the entire Bay of Bengal region. That the meeting was held in Myanmar is testimony to the military’s ability to put up a show of strength during turmoil.
However, deep in the military establishment is a concern, informally shared with Indian interlocutors; that China is promoting instability in Myanmar. While officially this was not mentioned anywhere, the realisation that Beijing’s negative role also has implications for India’s security is also a matter of mutual concern for India and Myanmar.
Delivering India’s statement at the BIMSTEC meeting, NSA Doval spoke on strengthening cooperation in counter-terrorism; combating drug trafficking, arms smuggling and organised crime; improving BIMSTEC connectivity; holding the 2nd Ports Conclave; and water security of Himalayan river systems. This is one of the first visits by a senior Indian official to Myanmar since the 2021 coup by the military.
The BIMSTEC meeting was convened to strategize and coordinate initiatives crucial to address common security challenges. On the sidelines of the BIMSTEC meeting, Doval also met his counterpart in Myanmar, Admiral Moe Aung. Additionally, all the Security Chiefs called on the Senior General Min Aung Hliang.
While the Security Chiefs meeting focused on issues of security of common concern, it is necessary to recall that the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation or BIMSTECas it is popularly known has since 1997 provided a platform for countries in the Bay of Bengal region to jointly address issues such as low investments, trade barriers, poverty, and transnational crime. It is in a real sense an economic grouping that seeks to promote integration and growth simultaneously.
The BIMSTEC grouping is important that it covers both land and sea in South Asia and beyond giving the Bay of Bengal region a central salience and link to South-East Asia. Its relevance stems from the ability to forge a consensus on many economic issues ranging from trade to climate change. Pertinently, a huge portion of India’s trade with South Asian countries is facilitated by BIMSTEC
This is thus a very beneficial platform that can help countries expand their trade partnerships with South and Southeast Asia. It is in this context that one needs to understand the latest meeting in Naypyitaw.
The BIMSTEC meeting with the top leadership of the Myanmar government assumes significance since the country has been witnessing widespread violent clashes between rebel forces and the Myanmar military, since the coup on 1 February 2021. Several parts of Myanmar have been witnessing intense fighting and resistance forces have captured several key towns, including most recently Lashio township.
In Myanmar, reports indicate that Ajit Doval did express India concerns about the fallout of the violence and instability in Myanmar during his meeting with his counterpart Admiral Moe Aung. On its part, Myanmar authorities expressed doubts about China’s intentions and expressed concerns about their duplicitous game in playing both sides in the present conflict.
The junta has suffered a series of humiliating military defeats at the hands of resistance forces and People’s Defence Forces subsequent to the launching of a coordinated offensive in October 2023 by a number of armed resistance groups. The offensive is the most significant challenge to the military, and its continuance threatens the military’s hold over large swathes of territory.
Recently, resistance forces have overrun military positions and captured key trading posts on the borders with India.This has increased concerns in New Delhi about the impact of these developments on the north-eastern states. The north-east is already sharing the burden of refugees from Myanmar, and intensified conflict will only see an uptick in inflow of refugees.
There are reports of the military junta recently losing control over vast swathe of territory to rebel and resistance forces. Beijing has played a duplicitous game with Myanmar, providing arms and ammunition to both the government and resistance forces. Recall that in April 2024, Deng Xijun, former Chinese Ambassador to ASEAN was sent as China’s special envoy to Myanmar.
He met with General Min Aung Hlaing and discussed China’s involvement in Myanmar. At that very moment, China also doubled the supply of ammunition and weapons to the resistance forces while providing arms to the military rulers also, assessing that it was best to play both sides.
It is well known that the United Wa State Army is backed, both financially and militarily by China. More recently, the Bamar Peoples Liberation Army (BPLA), backed by China has taken control of large areas of Myanmar, bordering the Indian state of Manipur, notes twitter handle Nepal Correspondence.
The 605th battalion of BPLA is reported to have captured (3 July 2024) the Northeastern HQ (Ramakha) of the Myanmar Army in Lashio. This poses a direct threat to India’s security in the North East. Note that the BPLA is a force fully funded and equipped by China.
In effect then, China has brought the conflict in Myanmar to India’s borders and can choose to escalate the situation when it suits them. This gives them a second front against India other than the Siliguri Corridor which they can anyways threaten militarily anytime thanks to their intrusions in Bhutan and reinforcement of infrastructure in the Chumbi Valley.
Pertinently, developments in Myanmar also directly impinge on Manipur’s internal security. Nepal Correspondence points to the occurrence of serious security incidents in Manipur around this time, which included several incidents of weapons snatching. These weapons were later traced to be in the hands of Peoples Defence Forces in Myanmar.
Myanmar could look towards BIMSTEC to provide a resolution to the current crisis. This will require deft diplomacy and a willingness to sit at the negotiating table. Essentially, this will require BIMSTEC to formulate a dispute-resolution mechanism that operates on the principles of deliberation and consensus. The challenge of course, is that China will want to play mediator as it has done in northern Shan state and will play a spoilsport to any such initiative. Still, a BIMSTEC initiative could help lessen the security threat to India on its borders. (Times of Oman)