Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in Ukraine for talks with the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, raising questions over New Delhi’s potential role in bringing about an eventual ceasefire in the Eastern European country.
The arrival of Modi, who leads the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, coincides with Ukraine’s National Flag Day, marks not only his first visit since Russia launched its February 2022 invasion but the first by an Indian prime minister to the country. India has carefully maintained a neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, advocating a peaceful resolution to the conflict through dialogue.
The country was present at the Ukraine Peace Summit in Geneva in June, a summit that Zelensky lobbied hard for, though India did not sign the joint statement that emerged from the event. China, which has also sought to portray itself as a mediator in the conflict, did not attend, citing Russia’s lack of an invitation.
India’s discounted purchases of Russian oil have helped sustain Moscow’s isolated post-invasion economy. Trade overall has also been booming, with India’s Trade Ministry reporting a record $65.7 billion of bilateral turnover last year. Russia has for decades been the main arms supplier for India, now the world’s top weapons buyer.
The U.S., which seeks to maintain strong ties with QUAD partner India in a bid to counter China’s expansive moves in the Indo-Pacific, has called on New Delhi to use its leverage to push Russia toward a ceasefire.
“So India has a long-standing relationship with Russia. I think that’s well-known,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said ahead of Modi’s Russia visit last month.
He reiterated Washington’s call to “utilize that relationship with Russia, that longstanding relationship and the unique position that they have, to urge President Putin to end his illegal war and to find a just peace, a lasting peace to this conflict; to tell [Russian President] Vladimir Putin to respect the UN Charter, to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
Zelensky took to X, formerly Twitter, to criticize Modi’s visit.
“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” he wrote.
Analysts have pointed out, however, that New Delhi is “walking a tightrope” when it comes to relations with its decades-old Russian partner at a time of deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing.
“[India] has been warming to the West in recent years, especially given rising border tensions with China,” Shashi Tharoor, a former United Nations under-secretary-general and an ex-Indian minister of state, wrote for Project Syndicate last week. “But, at the same time, India cannot disavow its relationship with Russia, however much this displeases the U.S.”
However, Modi, during his talks with Putin in July, secured several concessions and seemingly chided the Russian leader over the war, calling the deaths of children killed in a Russian strike on a hospital “unbearable.”
He also said the solution to the war “cannot be found on the battlefield.”
The statement was “meant to signal that India had not cast his lot entirely with Russia and doesn’t support it unconditionally,” Rajan Menon, Emeritus Anne and Bernard Spitzer Chair in Political Science at the City College of New York, told Newsweek. He also pointed to the dozen batches of humanitarian aid India donated to war-torn Ukraine in 2022.
There is a “convergence of interest” as Modi and Zelensky sit down for talks, Menon said.
“Ukraine, for its part, knows that it needs far more success in building support in the Global South, in which India is a leading voice,” Menon said.
Meanwhile India seeks a greater role in global leadership and hopes to “retain as much diplomatic flexibility as possible as the war in Ukraine continues,” he added.
Chris Weafer, CEO of Eurasia-based strategic consultancy Macro-Advisory, believes Modi has two objectives for his Kyiv trip.
One is to “demonstrate Indian neutrality, especially to a Western audience. The other is to try and find a way forward to a cease-fire and a peace process and to explore if India may have a role as a peace mediator,” Weafer told Newsweek, adding this was “undoubtedly” a topic during the prime minister’s discussions with Putin last month.
There is also an economic incentive for India to help bring the war to a close. Bilateral trade with Russia soared last year on the back of its energy purchases, with India in July topping China as the largest importer of Russian oil.
But this resulted in nearly $60 billion deficit. Sanctions on cross-border transactions are frustrating India’s efforts to boost its exports to the trade partner.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry and Indian presidential office with written requests for comment.
According to Ukraine’s presidential office, Modi and Zelensky are expected to “discuss issues of bilateral and multilateral cooperation” and sign multiple documents.
Modi’s visit comes as Ukraine pushes its initiative in Russia’s southwestern region of Kursk. In the weeks since Ukrainian forces mounted their August 6 surprise incursion into the region, some two hundred thousand locals have evacuated.
Meanwhile, Russian forces have been making gains in Donbas, one of the regions wrested from Ukraine in the early stages of the war. (News Week)