By Aavin Abeydeera
Asia’s oldest democracy will enter the polls just a few days from the time of the publication of this article. Millions of Sri Lankans will line up at the election booths on the 21st of September this year, to choose Sri Lanka’s tenth executive president.
Like a great many election cycles, this one has come around at a time of massive social, political, and economic upheaval in the country, but perhaps unlike any other election cycle, this iteration is set to be a free-for-all, with no clear leading figures heading the pre-election rating polls, reflecting the plethora of candidates that have come up and put their hands up in a bid for the presidential seat. However, amongst this sea of candidates, three main figures stand out from the rest, and with them, three vastly different visions of what Sri Lanka will be to its own people, and to the rest of the world.
Of course, as with almost all things political in Sri Lanka, nothing is as simple as meets the eye, with a complex web of broken and reforged alliances connecting all key players to each other.
Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe enjoys his current office not through the fiat of the people’s mandate, but through a parliamentary vote to fill in the vacuum left by President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa when he resigned as president during the Aragalaya protests of 2022.
Since then, President Wickremesinghe has largely stood as a figure unopposed in terms of real power- despite mixed reactions to his policies, Wickremesinghe has carried on with relative ease in terms of enacting those policies, largely thanks to the parliamentary backing he has from, strangely enough, his main historic rival; the Rajapaksa family-run Sri Lanka People’s Front (SLPP). This complex and oft-strained relationship is ultimately what gives Wickremesinghe his legitimacy and power in parliament, and it is this key point that ultimately divides almost all Sri Lankans.
Many believe that despite this strange alliance, Wickremesinghe has been a strong enough figure in his own right to not be swayed by SLPP directives, while a great many more Sri Lankans believe that Wickremesinghe, while being a good policymaker, has successfully shoved calls for accountability and justice under the rug, giving them, and ultimately the Rajapaksa family, a certain sense of continued safety and immunity from the allegations of corruption and bringing the country to an economic freefall due to poor economic policies.
Nevertheless, Wickremesinghe has embraced the role of the “benevolent dictator”, and has so far used the strong executive powers at his disposal to drive economic reform and decision-making. His recently released manifesto has a focus on stabilizing the country, and as far as the track record shows, it has been under his watch that the country’s economy has turned upwards since the historic economic crisis of 2022.
Globally, Wickremesinghe has always swayed towards Atlantic interests and has called for closer ties between Sri Lanka, the US and the European Union. It is perhaps this willingness to deal with the West, and by extension, the IMF, that has allowed Wickremesinghe to course-correct the freefalling Sri Lankan economy, or at least, halt its descent. While he has shown no willingness to do anything less than comply with the strict guidelines set by the IMF for their continued support, Wickremesinghe has pledged to lower the historically high taxes set during his presidency after achieving the macroeconomic goals set by his government.
Nevertheless, despite a moderately good showing as president, his economic policies remain unpopular, and a great many Sri Lankans view Wickremesinghe’s checkered past and willingness to deal with the SLPP as dealbreakers- his only response so far has been to raise the question; “if not me, who?”. This is indeed a valid question; no other presidential candidate has laid out an alternative to the economic policies that President Wickremesinghe has laid out, even though many of those same candidates have been quick to criticize him for said policies.
Next up on the ticket is seasoned presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa, the current Head of The Opposition in the legislative house of the country. Premadasa, himself the son of a former president, has long aspired to sit in the highest office in the country and made waves when he went up against Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the eventual winner of that election. Premadasa has consistently polled high approval ratings in the North and the East, and it is there that the bulk of his votes lie.
Certainly, his calls for the devolution of power, and accountability from the government on behalf of the minority communities of the country have bolstered this support immensely. His policy has certainly been the most progressive, with calls for accountability, good governance, cutting down on the bloated bureaucratic machine in Sri Lanka, as well as dealing with the IMF to ensure that those below the poverty line do not fall under a draconian tax policy. This is not surprising in the slightest, as Premadasa, has historically focused on poverty alleviation and reduction, especially in the Malaiyaha community and those in the Semi-arid regions in the Vanni region of Sri Lanka.
Furthermore, Premadasa has called for political devolution, harkening back to his support in the North and East of the island, and has called for a campaign of rooting out corruption in the country, with the Rajapaksa clan, especially in his crosshairs.
Nevertheless, despite a relatively robust policy manifesto, detractors question whether Premadasa has the will to reach such lofty goals. This is a valid concern- Premadasa has repeatedly called for the abolition of the executive presidency, and if his wish comes true, Premadasa will find himself in the big seat with none of the powers and privileges that will be needed to enact his policies.
Globally, it is not too difficult to ascertain if he will play ball with the West- he has been a supporter of the IMF programs and has historically looked towards the Western Hemisphere in expanding the Sri Lankan trade account. However, Premadasa has also called for increased national autonomy in decision-making and will look for increased autonomy from India and China on the global stage, while seeking to expand trade with countries in the Asia Pacific.
Despite these two candidates come from political dynasties with presidents in their ranks, it is this same prestige that has held them back from perhaps getting the fullest support that they could have gained- Sri Lanka has long been a hotbed of corruption and nepotism, and despite their grand promises, both Wickremesinghe and Premadasa hail from these dynasties and the traditions of corruption and nepotism that come with them.
Especially in the context of the Protests of 2022, neither candidate has the firmest grip on disillusioned voters who have long since framed, and perhaps rightly so, these seasoned political figures as nothing more than charlatans. And perhaps this has been why, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who had been nothing more than a nominal third power in the polling booths, has now become a very serious contender for the commander in chief of the country.
Hailing from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power front, Dissanayaka’s appeal lies mainly in the fact that he, alongside his party, has not partaken in the dynastic politics that have permeated Sri Lankan politics for the last seven decades, despite attempts (sometimes violent) to achieve their goal of being in power.
The changes Dissanayake’s platform has promised to make have been extensive, from reforming the much-maligned constitution and abolishing certain aspects of the executive presidency to laying out plans for rooting out corruption and galvanizing the state mechanism against corrupt elements.
However, Dissanayake deviates from the other candidates in that he has stated that the current IMF conditions have been unduly harsh and that reparations should be extracted from those who were in power, rather than the tax-paying public. Nevertheless, how he intends to reform these conditions, negotiate them, or present alternatives to this dilemma is uncertain. This has been a hallmark criticism of his- while the vision is grandiose, no one is certain as to how exactly AKD will execute his vision. Besides, there are legitimate and well-founded fears that the NPP once in power, will backslide on the modicum of progress made post-2022 and will revert back to expanding the public sector, and nationalizing institutions.
What one can see here is that AKD does not perhaps have the best policy portfolio, or even the most defined policy portfolio either. What he does have is a clean slate. He does not hail from a ruling tradition, and therefore, is unencumbered by the burden of having to pander to party lines and interest groups that seek to further their own interests. In AKD, lies the Sri Lankan people’s first great hope, for a “systemic change”.
As to who will win, no one knows, and perhaps no one will know either. For the first time in decades, no candidate has been afforded confidence and assurance of their seat, as they have found themselves asking an increasingly disillusioned Sri Lanka for their vote. And it is this disillusioned Sri Lankan public, and not any meagre presidential candidate, that has been the most interesting element in this election cycle.
Post-2022, there has been a blossoming of conscious political thought and an awakening of higher consciousness in the Sri Lankan public, and there has been recognition of the fact that systemic change is what is needed, and changing the flag at the top of the mast will ultimately be a futile manoeuvre in changing the ship as a whole. With this awakening, the Sri Lankan people have not just looked to these candidates’ appeal as charismatic leaders, but also as policymakers, and have questioned and scrutinized those who surround these candidates, having the insight to know that Sri Lanka will not be electing just a president, they will be electing a new regime, good or bad.
Perhaps like no other time in history, the Sri Lankan vote carries real power- power to enact change, and power to display the people’s mandate, and show that Sri Lanka will no longer take it on the chin, and will fight back against their rulers, and will act as the sword that hangs over Damocles’ head if need be.
Aavin Abeydeera is an undergraduate at the Faculty of Law of the University of Colombo. A graduate of the BCIS, his interests range from geopolitics, economics, and foreign policy to culture and sports. He can be reached at aavinabeydeera@gmail.com.
Factum is an Asia-Pacific focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation, Strategic Communications, and Climate Outreach accessible via www.factum.lk.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the organization’s.