Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a tight race for the White House as Election Day 2024 closes in.
Polling released Thursday reaffirms what has been clear for weeks now: it is an incredibly close race.
The slice of the electorate who can be swayed by candidates is growing smaller and smaller, as more people around the country head to the polls for early voting.
Trump and Harris have been hitting the road in key swing states and appearing in interviews as they make their final pitches to Americans.
Here is what to know about presidential polling results on Thursday, Oct. 24:
Trump 47%, Harris 45% in latest Wall Street Journal poll.
Republican presidential candidate Trump is leading Democratic presidential candidate Harris by two percentage points in a new poll by The Wall Street Journal.
The survey of 1,500 registered voters, conducted from Oct. 19 until Oct. 22, showed Trump leading 47% to 45%, within the poll’s margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
The latest numbers represent a small swing towards Trump since The Wall Street Journal’s last poll in August, which showed a 47%-45% advantage for Harris.
Trump 48%, Harris 46% in latest CNBC poll
Republican presidential candidate Trump is leading Democratic presidential candidate Harris by two percentage points in a CNBC All-America Economic Survey out Thursday.
The poll of 1,000 voters nationally showed Trump with a 48% to 46% lead over Harris, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1%. The survey took place from Oct. 15 to Oct. 19.
The poll also showed that the economy continues to be a dominating issue for voters.
“Trump holds commanding leads among voters who prioritize the inflation, the economy and addressing the needs of the middle class,” CNBC stated. “By a 42% to 24% margin, voters say they will be better off financially if Trump wins, with 29% saying their financial position wouldn’t change no matter who is elected. “
Harris 50%, Trump 47% in ongoing poll coverage from Tipp
Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads Republican presidential candidate by three percentage points in Tipp’s Tracking Poll as of Thursday morning.
The poll of 1,260 likely voters conducted between Oct. 21 and Oct. 23 shows Harris leading 50% to 47% with a 2.8% margin of error.
According to Tipp, both candidates have fluctuated in a range of three points over the last 10 days.
“This steady yet small margin suggests a volatile electorate, where every percentage point matters,” Tipp noted.
Bloomberg swing state polling shows candidates in a tie
The candidates are statistically tied among likely voters in seven swing states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll out Wednesday night.
Harris barely leads Trump 49.1% to 48.5% across all swing states, within the one percentage point margin of error. The data was taken from a poll that surveyed 5,308 registered voters from Oct. 16 to Oct. 20 in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
“Harris outperforms her rival in the poll on some personal attributes that may help her with those disaffected Republicans. When asked which candidate is best described as mentally fit, honest and compassionate, swing-state likely voters chose Harris by wide margins,” Bloomberg reported, countered by findings that more voters find Trump experienced, patriotic and a strong leader.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated. (USA Today)
