World War III has either begun or is on the brink, depending on whom you ask. Local conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East appear poised to spill over into regional wars.
Against this global backdrop of escalating tension, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finds himself at the centre of a significant geopolitical endeavour.
In a world where alliances are increasingly shaped by a complex interplay of historical ties, economic interests, and moral imperatives, Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine—following a controversial meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin—has drawn both criticism and cautious optimism.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a pointed statement, described Modi’s embrace of Putin as “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.” This article explores the broader implications of this encounter and Modi’s impending visit to Ukraine, where he is expected to act as a mediator in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Modi’s Meeting with Putin: A Controversial Embrace
The backdrop to Zelensky’s statement is Modi’s recent visit to Moscow, where he engaged in talks with Vladimir Putin. During this meeting, Modi made a significant statement, asserting that “war is not the solution” and emphasising the need for dialogue and diplomacy.
Despite this, Modi’s warm interaction with Putin, including the symbolic gesture of a bear hug, sent shock waves through the Western hemisphere, especially in light of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine. For Zelensky, who has tirelessly worked to garner international support against Russia’s invasion, Modi’s actions were nothing short of a betrayal. NATO diehards agreed.
Zelensky’s description of Putin as “the world’s most bloody criminal” reflects the deep wounds inflicted by the Russian invasion, which has led to significant loss of life, the destruction of infrastructure, and the displacement of millions of Ukrainians.
In this context, Modi’s perceived closeness to Putin raises questions about India’s stance on the conflict and its implications for global peace efforts.
India, however, has maintained a delicate balance in its foreign policy. As the world’s largest democracy, it has traditionally upheld the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yet, India’s historical ties with Russia, rooted in Cold War alliances and substantial defence cooperation, complicate its diplomatic position.
Modi’s engagement with Putin can be seen as an effort to preserve this longstanding relationship while navigating the turbulent waters of international diplomacy.
The Significance of Modi’s Upcoming Visit to Ukraine
Amid the backlash following his meeting with Putin, Modi’s scheduled visit to Ukraine next week is a critical opportunity to demonstrate India’s commitment to global peace and stability.
The visit, during which Modi will engage directly with President Zelensky, is being framed as a potential turning point in the conflict, with Modi positioned as a mediator who could potentially bridge the divide between Kyiv and Moscow.
For Zelensky, Modi’s visit offers a chance to secure India’s support in his quest for a resolution to the conflict. India, with its growing global influence and strategic importance, could play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of peace negotiations.
Zelensky will likely seek assurances from Modi that India will use its leverage with Russia to press for an end to hostilities and a return to meaningful dialogue.
However, the path to peace is fraught with challenges. Zelensky’s scepticism, as evident in his strong words, reflects the deep mistrust that has developed between Ukraine and those perceived to be sympathetic to Russia.
Modi will need to navigate this mistrust carefully, ensuring that his actions in Ukraine are not seen merely as a counterbalance to his earlier meeting with Putin, but as a genuine effort to broker peace.
The Challenges of Mediation
Mediating between Russia and Ukraine is no small task. The conflict, which began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and escalated in 2022 with Russia’s full-scale invasion, has deep roots in historical grievances, territorial disputes, and geopolitical ambitions.
The war has not only devastated Ukraine but has also strained Russia’s relations with the West, leading to widespread sanctions and a reconfiguration of global alliances. Countries like France, Germany, and Italy, once seen as close to Russia, have all dramatically pulled up their drawbridges.
Modi’s challenge will be to find common ground between two leaders who have fundamentally opposing views on the conflict’s origins and resolution.
For Putin, the war is about reclaiming what he views as Russia’s rightful influence over its near abroad, a perspective deeply intertwined with his vision of Russian national identity. For Zelensky, the war is an existential struggle for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and future as a democratic nation aligned with the West.
To succeed, Modi will need to leverage India’s unique position as a country that has maintained relations with both Russia and Ukraine, as well as with Western powers. India’s status as a non-aligned nation, coupled with its rising global influence, positions Modi as a potentially neutral mediator. However, neutrality will require careful diplomatic manoeuvring, as any perceived bias could derail peace efforts and further entrench the conflict.
A Moment of Truth
As Modi prepares for his visit to Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher. His actions in the coming weeks will not only shape the future of the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also define India’s role on the global stage. Zelensky’s criticism underscores the high expectations placed on Modi and the delicate balance he must maintain between competing interests.
If Modi can successfully mediate a peace deal, it would be a monumental achievement, solidifying India’s status as a global power capable of influencing major international conflicts. However, failure could deepen the mistrust between Ukraine and its allies, casting a shadow over India’s diplomatic efforts. But even in failure, trying to avert World War III is a noble effort.
In the end, Modi’s visit to Ukraine will be a test of his diplomatic acumen and India’s ability to navigate the complex geopolitics of the 21st century. It is a moment of truth, not just for Modi, but for the broader international community, as the world watches to see if peace can be achieved in one of the most contentious and devastating conflicts of our time.
Chris Blackburn has worked in the Indian subcontinent for over 20 years. He has been awarded for his work on security, human rights, and democracy. He has led programmes combatting religious extremism and communalism in India and Bangladesh. He is also a co-founder of Global Friends of Afghanistan (GFA), a non-profit organisation based in the United States of America. (EU Today)
